If you’ve had moving on your mind during the first half of the year, you may be feeling stuck. (BTW…you’re not the only one.)
Mortgage rates stayed higher than people wanted. Affordability remained tight. And uncertainty overseas added another layer of pressure nobody saw coming.
So the question is: Will the second half of the year be any better for the housing market?
While no one can say for sure, there are a few encouraging signs that the market could start moving in a better direction. Here’s what to watch.
Mortgage Rates Could Be Near a Turning Point
One of the biggest reasons mortgage rates haven’t come down yet is inflation. And higher energy prices and uncertainty overseas are at least part of the reason inflation is still elevated. The encouraging news?
Oil prices seem to be coming back down. What does that have to do with buying a home? It’s because historically, mortgage rates and oil prices tend to move in the same direction.
Take a look at the graph below. Generally, they rise and fall together. Both went up in February when the conflict with Iran began. While there’s still been some volatility, experts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) say oil prices are forecast to come down. And since oil prices have been on an overall downward trend lately, mortgage rates could come down too:

It’s too soon to say exactly when that will happen (or by how much they’ll fall), but if energy prices go down, inflation cools off, and tensions overseas ease, mortgage rates could come down in the second half of the year.
And that’s good news for anyone thinking about moving. The first half of the year tested everyone’s patience. The second half may finally reward it.
Home Prices Could Pick Back Up
A lot of people want home prices to fall, too. But that’s not what most forecasts show.
While price trends are going to vary by area, and some places are seeing mild declines, experts still expect home prices to net positive this year at the national level.
In fact, they’re projecting prices will rise by an average of 2.3% in 2026 (see graph below):

What does that mean for you? Right now, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data shows prices are up about 1.7% nationally year-over-year. The average forecast for all of 2026? 2.3%.
Based on those projections, home price growth would have to pick up a bit during the second half of the year. Nothing dramatic, just enough to finish the year around that projected 2.3% gain.
Here’s why that’s possible.
The number of homes for sale has grown, but that growth may be starting to slow down. And if rates improve, more buyers could jump back into the market. More buyers competing could put modest upward pressure on prices, especially if inventory’s not growing as fast.
That’s why buyers shouldn’t assume waiting will guarantee a lower price later. (It never really does.) For sellers, that’s great news if you’ve been worried about your home’s value.
More Homes Are Expected To Sell
If you’ve been wondering why the housing market has felt quieter lately, you’re not imagining it. Home sales have been slower than many experts expected. But that doesn’t mean people have stopped wanting to move.
In fact, for the first half of the year Today Real Estate has exceeded expectations for successful transactions!
We’ve been able to help our clients close on 15 properties during the first half of the year. It is said that the average, active Cape Cod realtor has three successful transactions over the course of a year!
Bottom Line
A lot of people still want or need to make a change. They’ve just been waiting for more certainty, better affordability, or a clearer read on where the market is headed. And early signs show that may be on the horizon.
Mortgage rates may ease. Home sales could pick up. And prices are expected to continue rising at a healthier, more sustainable pace. If you’ve been waiting for signs of progress, this is it.
If you want to understand what these forecasts mean for your plans and what’s happening on Cape, let’s connect. You can always find us 508-388-1994 (Mari and Hank) or 781-264-5517.
We’re ready to help.
Mari, Hank, and Colleen
Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.













