#FederalHousingFinanceAgency – Make Your Move with Mari

What to Expect in Second Half of 2026

Here are some encouraging signs.

If you’ve had moving on your mind during the first half of the year, you may be feeling stuck. (BTW…you’re not the only one.)

Mortgage rates stayed higher than people wanted. Affordability remained tight. And uncertainty overseas added another layer of pressure nobody saw coming.

So the question is: Will the second half of the year be any better for the housing market?

While no one can say for sure, there are a few encouraging signs that the market could start moving in a better direction. Here’s what to watch.

Mortgage Rates Could Be Near a Turning Point

One of the biggest reasons mortgage rates haven’t come down yet is inflation. And higher energy prices and uncertainty overseas are at least part of the reason inflation is still elevated. The encouraging news?

Oil prices seem to be coming back down. What does that have to do with buying a home? It’s because historically, mortgage rates and oil prices tend to move in the same direction.

Take a look at the graph below. Generally, they rise and fall together. Both went up in February when the conflict with Iran began. While there’s still been some volatility, experts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) say oil prices are forecast to come down. And since oil prices have been on an overall downward trend lately, mortgage rates could come down too:

a graph showing the price of a mortgage rate

It’s too soon to say exactly when that will happen (or by how much they’ll fall), but if energy prices go down, inflation cools off, and tensions overseas ease, mortgage rates could come down in the second half of the year.

And that’s good news for anyone thinking about moving. The first half of the year tested everyone’s patience. The second half may finally reward it.

Home Prices Could Pick Back Up

A lot of people want home prices to fall, too. But that’s not what most forecasts show.

While price trends are going to vary by area, and some places are seeing mild declines, experts still expect home prices to net positive this year at the national level.

In fact, they’re projecting prices will rise by an average of 2.3% in 2026 (see graph below):

What does that mean for you? Right now, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data shows prices are up about 1.7% nationally year-over-year. The average forecast for all of 2026? 2.3%.

Based on those projections, home price growth would have to pick up a bit during the second half of the year. Nothing dramatic, just enough to finish the year around that projected 2.3% gain.

Here’s why that’s possible.

The number of homes for sale has grown, but that growth may be starting to slow down. And if rates improve, more buyers could jump back into the market. More buyers competing could put modest upward pressure on prices, especially if inventory’s not growing as fast.

That’s why buyers shouldn’t assume waiting will guarantee a lower price later. (It never really does.) For sellers, that’s great news if you’ve been worried about your home’s value.

More Homes Are Expected To Sell

If you’ve been wondering why the housing market has felt quieter lately, you’re not imagining it. Home sales have been slower than many experts expected. But that doesn’t mean people have stopped wanting to move.

In fact, for the first half of the year Today Real Estate has exceeded expectations for successful transactions!

We’ve been able to help our clients close on 15 properties during the first half of the year. It is said that the average, active Cape Cod realtor has three successful transactions over the course of a year!

Bottom Line

A lot of people still want or need to make a change. They’ve just been waiting for more certainty, better affordability, or a clearer read on where the market is headed. And early signs show that may be on the horizon.

Mortgage rates may ease. Home sales could pick up. And prices are expected to continue rising at a healthier, more sustainable pace. If you’ve been waiting for signs of progress, this is it.

If you want to understand what these forecasts mean for your plans and what’s happening on Cape, let’s connect. You can always find us 508-388-1994 (Mari and Hank) or 781-264-5517.

We’re ready to help.

Mari, Hank, and Colleen

Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.

Fewer Homeowners Are Staying Locked In

Life doesn’t wait for the perfect mortgage rate. Maybe you shouldn’t either.

If you’re like a lot of homeowners, you’ve probably thought: “I’d like to move… but I don’t want to give up my 3% rate.” That’s fair. That rate has been one of your best financial wins – and it can be hard to let go. But here’s what you need to remember…

A great rate won’t make up for a home that no longer works for you. Life changes, and sometimes, your home needs to change with it. And you’re not the only one making that choice.

The Lock-In Effect Is Starting To Ease

Many homeowners have been frozen in place by something the experts call the lock-in effect. That’s when you won’t move because you don’t want to take on a higher rate on your next home loan. But data from Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows the lock-in effect is slowly starting to ease for some people.

The share of homeowners with a mortgage rate below 3% (the yellow in the graph below) is slowly declining as more people move. And while some of the people with a rate over 6% are first-time buyers, the number of homeowners with a rate above 6% (the blue) is rising as others take on higher rates for their next home:

And while it may not seem that dramatic, it’s actually a pretty noteworthy shift. The share of mortgages with a rate above 6% just hit a 10-year-high. That shows more people are getting used to today’s rates as the new normal.

Some banks — like Cape Cod Five — are now offering rates in the 5% range! If you’d like more information, please let us know. We can put you in touch with a top lender at the bank, who we have worked with many times.

Why Are More People Moving Now, if It Means Taking on a Higher Rate?

It’s simple. Sometimes they can’t put their life on pause anymore. Families grow, jobs change, priorities shift, and a house that once fit perfectly may not fit at all anymore – no matter how good their rate was. And that’s okay. As Chen Zhao, Head of Economic Research at Redfin, explains:

“More homeowners are deciding it’s worth moving even if it means giving up a lower mortgage rate. Life doesn’t standstill—people get new jobs, grow their families, downsize after retirement, or simply want to live in a different neighborhood. Those needs are starting to outweigh the financial benefit of clinging to a rock-bottom mortgage rate.”

First American refers to these life motivators as the Five Ds:

Diplomas: People with college degrees typically earn more, and that adds up to more buying power. Maybe you bought your house when you were younger and now that you’ve graduated and have a rising career, you’re ready to move up.
Diapers: You’ve outgrown your space. If you’re welcoming a new baby, your current home might not be cutting it anymore.
Divorce: Whether it’s ending a marriage (or starting one), it can create the need for a new place to call home.
Downsizing: You’re ready to downsize. Maybe the kids have moved out and it’s time to simplify. Smaller house, less maintenance, more freedom.
Death: If you’ve recently lost a loved one, maybe you’ve realized you want to be closer to family. Life’s too short to live far from the people who matter most.

Whatever your reason, here’s what you need to think about. Yes, your low rate is great. But staying put means your life may stay on hold. And maybe that’s not working for you anymore.

According to Realtor.com, nearly 2 in 3 potential sellers have already been thinking about moving for over a year. That’s a long time to press pause on your plans. On your needs. On your family’s goals. So, maybe the question isn’t: “Should I move?”

It’s actually: “How much longer am I willing to stay somewhere that no longer fits my life?”

Bottom Line

Life doesn’t wait for the perfect rate. Maybe you shouldn’t either.

With mortgage rates down from their peak and forecast to dip slightly more in 2026, moving may be more feasible than you think. If you’re ready to see what’s possible in our market, let’s talk. You can find us at 508-388-1994 or msennott@todayrealestate.com.

We’re here to help…

Mari and Hank

Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.

Unrealistic Pricing Can Cost You

The risk isn’t just missing out on offers, it’s missing out on the move you needed to make in the first place.

As inventory increases, you need to get your home priced right when you are ready to sell. Honestly, it’s more important than ever. Why? While you may want to list high just to see what happens, that’s a plan that can easily backfire, and it’s going to cost you in today’s market.

And the risk isn’t just missing out on offers, it’s missing out on the move you needed to make in the first place.

The Real Pitfall of Overpricing

Many homeowners remember what their neighbor’s house sold for a few years ago, and they want to chase that same sky-high number. The problem is, that was a different market.

Today, there are more homes for sale. Buyers have more options to choose from. They don’t have to get into bidding wars where they offer way over asking just to compete. Now they can come in at, or even below, list price. And if you’re not open to that, they’ll move on. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:

“Buyers will have more leverage in many, but not all, markets. Sellers will need to adjust price expectations to reflect the transitioning market.”

But here’s the good news. You still have one big advantage as a seller. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home values went up by a staggering 54% over the last 5 years. So, even if you compromise just a little bit on your sale price today, odds are you’ll still come out way ahead.

The challenge? Most sellers aren’t thinking about it that way. They’re stuck on what a neighbor got months or years ago – and that’s a costly mistake.

Overpricing Can Stall Your Whole Move

Here’s what happens. A seller lists too high. Buyers stay away. No offers come in. The house sits. And suddenly, that seller is facing a tough decision. Do they cut the price? Stick it out? Or give up altogether?

Unfortunately, a late price cut may not be enough. Buyers often see that as a red flag that something’s wrong with the house. That’s why some sellers are opting to just pull their listing off the market entirely.

In a recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) over half of agents (54%) say there are more homes being taken off the market than usual.

And the top reasons for that? According to the agents, homeowners didn’t get any offers they felt were fair. The survey from JBREC and KCM explains it like this:

“Sellers holding onto high price expectations is the leading reason they are delisting their homes.”

BrightMLS data backs this up:

“. . . sellers are delisting after having their home on the market and finding they are not getting the price they hoped for.”

It’s more proof pricing too high does more than turn buyers away, it puts your whole move at risk. Because if no one looks at your home or makes an offer, how are you going to sell it?

Remember: all realtors who are doing their jobs generally speaking look at the same comps. If your realtor advises you that the price you “want” is high, other realtors will be telling their buyers the same thing. With competition being what it is, you don’t want your home immediately eliminated because of price.

The Secret To Making Your Move Happen

If you’re selling to relocate for a job, need more space for your growing family, or have to be closer to your relatives as they age, you can’t afford to get stuck. You need a pricing strategy that helps you move forward – and that starts with us.

The sellers who are winning right now are the ones working with experienced real estate professionals who know the current market and aren’t afraid to have honest conversations about price.

Bottom Line

Pricing your house for today’s market isn’t just about getting it sold. It’s about making sure your move doesn’t stall before it starts.

Let’s talk through what buyers are really paying right now, and how to price your home to match.

You can find us at 508-388-1994 or msennott@todayrealestate.com. We’re here to help…

Mari and Hank

Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.