Some buyers, sellers, and commentators are a little uncertain right now about the housing market. And that’s led to some dramatic headlines. If you’re thinking about buying a home, this may be making you feel a little uneasy about your decision.
A recent study by CNBC asked homebuyers what they’re most worried about, and three themes kept coming up again and again:
- Mortgage rates
- The number of homes for sale
- Home prices
You should know that a lot of what you may be hearing is based more on misconceptions than facts. So, let’s break it down and separate fact from fiction.
Misconception #1: “I’ll Just Wait, Because Mortgage Rates Are Going To Fall Dramatically”
One idea going around on social is that mortgage rates are going to drop dramatically soon. So, it’s better to wait to buy.
But is that really what’s expected?
While mortgage rates have come down a bit in the last few weeks, forecasts don’t show a major drop ahead. The most likely scenario is that rates stay somewhere in the low 6% range this year.
And that’s not a big change from where rates are now (see graph below):
Of course, this depends on where inflation and the economy go from here. But, based on what we know today, waiting for a big drop in rates may not work out the way some people hope. As U.S. News explains:
“Mortgage rates aren’t expected to change much over the next several quarters . . .”
Not to mention, even with rates where they are today, it’s already more affordable than a year ago. So, even if they don’t change much, it’s still better than it was.
Misconception #2: “There Are Too Many Homes for Sale Right Now”
You’ve probably heard inventory is up. And nationally, it is. The number of homes for sale is 8% higher than this time last year. But that’s not a bad thing. In fact, it’s one of the reasons buyers have a bit more breathing room right now.
The problem is the headlines are making something good, sound bad. They’re focusing on how this is the most inventory we’ve had since 2019 or how many homes builders are building. And that can make it sound like the number of homes for sale is rising too far, too fast.
But that’s not what the bigger picture shows.
Data from Realtor.com shows that, even though inventory is up compared to last year, it’s still nearly 14% lower than it was during the last normal housing market (2017-2019):
On Cape Cod, inventory is down 21% comparing this March to last.
Misconception #3: “Home Prices Are About to Crash”
You’ve probably seen this one, too. The confusion is coming from the fact that some areas are experiencing price declines. And influencers are running with that and saying prices are crashing. But that’s not the reality.
Most areas are seeing prices rise, not fall. On Cape, the median sales price for a single-family home is up almost 2% YTD comparing the first three months of this year with the same time period in 2025.
Why are prices up?
- Many homeowners aren’t selling because they don’t want to give up the low mortgage rate they locked in a few years ago. And that’s keeping a lid on how much inventory can grow.
- Since inventory is still below pre-pandemic norms, there aren’t enough homes for sale to cause a price crash.
- And even in markets with more inventory, some sellers are choosing to pull their homes off the market instead of cutting prices.
Bottom Line
Online posts are going to make things sound worse than they are. If you want a true, data-bound look at what’s really happening in today’s market, please talk with us. You can always find us at 508-388-1994 (Mari and Hank) or 781-423-8662.
We can separate fact from fiction.
Mari, Hank, and Colleen
Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.
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