#housinginventory – Make Your Move with Mari

Mid-Year Housing Update

Why some forecasts have changed

If the housing market feels confusing right now, you’re not the only one.

Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven’t picked up as much as expected. And many buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or be more affordable.

The truth is: a lot changed over the first half of this year.

Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound.

But inflation, economic uncertainty as evidenced by increased gas and grocery prices, and continuing conflict in the Middle East have combined to push mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates are staying elevated for longer, some buyers are continuing to hold off.

That’s why the real experts have recently revised their forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):

So, what does this actually mean for you? Let’s break it down.

Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated

While just about everyone wants mortgage rates to go back to the uppers 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, as of right now, the experts don’t think that’s likely to happen this year.

Instead, forecasts have been updated from the low 6s as originally projected. Many industry organizations are saying rates will stay in roughly the mid 6s this year. The good news is, that’s still lower than rates were a year ago.

Of course, this is based on what we know today. If the conflict overseas comes to an end or inflation drops, this could change. But if you’re waiting for lower rates, it may not pay off in the way you expect.

Existing Home Sales Revised Lower

Back in late 2025, experts expected we’d sell an average of 4.5 million homes this year. Now? That’s dropped down a bit to 4.2 million.

That tells us something important: buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains challenging.

Higher mortgage rates have made monthly payments harder to manage, especially for first-time buyers. And that’s slowed the pace of the market compared to what was originally expected. But even though the forecast was revised down, we’re still expected to sell more homes than last year.

Once geopolitical tensions resolve and rates begin to settle down, many experts believe that group of buyers will be ready to jump back in. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:

“There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.”

There already have been a few glimmers of renewed hope. In recent months, pending homes sale have been improving month over month despite higher rates.

So, if you’re able to afford a home at today’s rates, it could still make sense to buy now. Otherwise, if you wait, you’ll have more competition (and potentially fewer homes to choose from) when those other buyers jump back in.

New Home Sales Also Slowed

Builders also expected to have a stronger year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales would top 700k in 2026. Now, economists expect we’ll be just shy of that.

Again, mortgage rates are a major reason why.

But the upside for buyers is that builders may be even more motivated to sell. That means builder incentives, negotiation opportunities, and pricing flexibility may continue.

Builders could be more ready to negotiate, and that gives you more leverage to get a better deal.

Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise

This is one of the most important takeaways from the entire forecast. Even though sales activity is slower, on average, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward.

They still expect prices to rise nationally this year.

Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the number of homes for sale is still relatively limited overall. That imbalance is helping support prices, even in a slower market.

On Cape Cod, prices remain steady. In many cases, what’s being interpreted as a “drop in prices,” is actually sellers accepting the fact that this is not just a few years ago when it seemed one could list their house at just about any price and find a ready buyer.

And while buyers may think they want to see a drop in prices, generally you feel better about a big purchase when it doesn’t depreciate right away.

Bottom Line

The housing market hasn’t rebounded as quickly as experts originally hoped. But that doesn’t mean it’s stalled.

So don’t see this revision in forecasts as a sign of trouble. See it as a temporary reaction to overall conditions and uncertainty.

If you have selling — or buying — on your mind, we’re happy to walk you through your options. You can always find us at 508-388-1994 (Mari and Hank) or Colleen (781-264-5517.)

Let’s talk soon…

Mari, Hank, and Colleen

Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.

Have You Given Up on Owning a Home?

This isn’t 2021. Or even 2023 or 2024.

If you stepped back from your home search over the past few years, you’re not alone.

But the good news today is that things have changed, and you might want to take another look. With more homes to choose from, prices leveling off in many areas, and mortgage rates easing, today’s market is offering something you haven’t had in a while: options.

Experts agree, buyers are in a better spot right now than they’ve been in quite a long time. Here’s what they have to say.

Affordability Is Finally Improving

Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says affordability is finally starting to turn the corner:

“Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market.”

Mortgage rates have eased from their recent highs, price growth has slowed, and that one-two combo is making homes more affordable than they’ve been in months.

And please don’t get discouraged when you see what the “median sales price” is. The median is the price in the middle. There are just as many homes for sale below that number as above.

There Are More Homes on The Market

Prices are easing because there are more homes on the market. According to the latest from Realtor.com, there are 17% more homes for sale today than there were at this time last year. That means more options, less competition with other buyers, and a chance to find the space that actually works for you.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.”

Take a look at the numbers.

As Yun notes, inventory is up everywhere. Compared to this time last year, every region of the country has more homes on the market than at this time last year (see graph below):

On Cape Cod, there are more homes and condos for sales, too.

So, when you step back and look at the bigger picture, this means more choices for everyone.

And with fewer buyers in the market and more homes for sale, sellers are willing to negotiate to get a deal done.

All of this adds up to a win if you’ve been thinking about buying.

If you stepped away from your search because things felt too competitive, too pricey, you were worried about finding a home, or it was all just too much to process, this could be your moment to take another look.

And if you’re not quite ready to go all in, that’s okay too. You can start by planning ahead. We’re here to work with you. We can help you break down your budget, narrow your search, and make sure you’re prepped and ready when the right home hits the market.

If prices on Cape Cod aren’t for you? Where else would you consider living? We can help you with that, too, as Today Real Estate has realtors throughout New England.

Bottom Line

Let’s talk.

Because this isn’t 2021.

This isn’t even 2023 or 2024.

This is a new market – and you might be surprised by what you could find.

Mari and Hank

Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.

Buy Now or Wait for Rates to Drop?

Buyers who are holding out for lower mortgage rates may be missing a key opening in the market.

Mortgage rates are always a hot topic – and for good reason. After the most recent jobs report came out weaker than expected, the bond market reacted almost instantly. As a result, in early August mortgage rates dropped to their lowest point so far this year (6.55%).

While that may not sound like a big deal, pretty much every buyer has been waiting for rates to fall. And even a seemingly small drop like this reignites the hope we’re finally going to see rates trending down. But what’s realistic to expect?

According to the latest projections, rates aren’t expected to fall dramatically anytime soon. Most experts project they’ll stay somewhere in the mid-to-low 6% range through 2026 (see graph below):

In other words, no big changes are expected. But small shifts, like the one we just saw, are still likely.

What Rate Would Get Buyers Moving Again?

The magic number most buyers seem to be watching for is 6%. And it’s not just a psychological benchmark; it has real impact. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says if rates reach 6%:

And roughly 550,000 people would buy a home within 12 to 18 months
5.5 million more households could afford the median-priced home

That’s a lot of pent-up demand just waiting for the green light. And if you look back at the graph above, you’ll see Fannie Mae thinks we’ll hit that threshold next year. That raises an important question: Does it really make sense to wait for lower rates?

Because here’s the tradeoff. If you’re waiting for 6%, you need to realize a lot of other people are too. And when rates do continue to inch down and more buyers jump into the market all at once, you could face more competition, fewer choices, and higher home prices. NAR explains it like this:

“Home buyers wishing for lower mortgage interest rates may eventually get their wish, but for now, they’ll have to decide whether it’s better to wait or jump into the market.”

Consider the unique window that exists right now:

Inventory is up = more choices
Price growth has slowed down = more realistic pricing
You may have more room to negotiate = you could get a better deal

These are all opportunities that will go away if rates fall and demand surges. That’s why NAR says:

“Buyers who are holding out for lower mortgage rates may be missing a key opening in the market.”

Bottom Line

Some people have told us that they are holding off on making their next move in order to see “what happens.” If that means if rates are going to drop, you have your answer. They aren’t expected to hit 6% this year.

But when rates drop, you’ll have to deal with more competition as other buyers jump back in. If you want less pressure and more negotiating power, that opportunity is already here – and it might not last for long. It all depends on what happens next in the economy.

If you’re thinking about entering the market but want to talk it through, we’re here to listen. You can find us at 508-388-1994 or msennott@todayrealestate.com. Let us know how we can help.

Mari and Hank

Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.