Mortgage rates are always a hot topic – and for good reason. After the most recent jobs report came out weaker than expected, the bond market reacted almost instantly. As a result, in early August mortgage rates dropped to their lowest point so far this year (6.55%).
While that may not sound like a big deal, pretty much every buyer has been waiting for rates to fall. And even a seemingly small drop like this reignites the hope we’re finally going to see rates trending down. But what’s realistic to expect?
According to the latest projections, rates aren’t expected to fall dramatically anytime soon. Most experts project they’ll stay somewhere in the mid-to-low 6% range through 2026 (see graph below):
In other words, no big changes are expected. But small shifts, like the one we just saw, are still likely.
What Rate Would Get Buyers Moving Again?
The magic number most buyers seem to be watching for is 6%. And it’s not just a psychological benchmark; it has real impact. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says if rates reach 6%:
- And roughly 550,000 people would buy a home within 12 to 18 months
- 5.5 million more households could afford the median-priced home
That’s a lot of pent-up demand just waiting for the green light. And if you look back at the graph above, you’ll see Fannie Mae thinks we’ll hit that threshold next year. That raises an important question: Does it really make sense to wait for lower rates?
Because here’s the tradeoff. If you’re waiting for 6%, you need to realize a lot of other people are too. And when rates do continue to inch down and more buyers jump into the market all at once, you could face more competition, fewer choices, and higher home prices. NAR explains it like this:
“Home buyers wishing for lower mortgage interest rates may eventually get their wish, but for now, they’ll have to decide whether it’s better to wait or jump into the market.”
Consider the unique window that exists right now:
- Inventory is up = more choices
- Price growth has slowed down = more realistic pricing
- You may have more room to negotiate = you could get a better deal
These are all opportunities that will go away if rates fall and demand surges. That’s why NAR says:
“Buyers who are holding out for lower mortgage rates may be missing a key opening in the market.”
Bottom Line
Some people have told us that they are holding off on making their next move in order to see “what happens.” If that means if rates are going to drop, you have your answer. They aren’t expected to hit 6% this year.
But when rates drop, you’ll have to deal with more competition as other buyers jump back in. If you want less pressure and more negotiating power, that opportunity is already here – and it might not last for long. It all depends on what happens next in the economy.
If you’re thinking about entering the market but want to talk it through, we’re here to listen. You can find us at 508-388-1994 or msennott@todayrealestate.com. Let us know how we can help.
Mari and Hank
Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision.
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